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Investigating the Political Economy of Drought in Pakistan
(Amjad Bhatti)

Malone: My father died of starvation in the black 47. May be you've heard of it?
Violet: The Famine?
Malone: No, the starvation. When a country is full of food and exporting it, there can be no famine. My father was starved dead; and I was starved out to America in me mother's arms.
(George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman, 1946)

"No less importantly, it has to be recognized that even when the prime mover in a famine is a natural occurrence such as flood or a drought, what it's impact will be on population would depend on how society is organized.."
(Amartya Sen, Hunger and Public Action, 1989)

"There is water for drinking even if it is brackish, but there is no water for goats, sheep and agriculture. This is what we call drought"
(Mohamad Saleem Samoo, an elderly villager of Nagarparkar talking to a newsman, May 14, 2000)

(1) From a mere possibility to a sheer reality With the present mastery over natural forces, disasters are no more natural. An illusory, but commonplace perception however still hangs up at a point, where `disaster' is confused with `hazard' as a word as well as a phenomenon. Recent studies suggest very insistently that hazards might have their origin in nature but these are conveniently turned into disasters by very social forces, development designs and kind of other human interventions. Climatic hazards like floods, cyclones, earthquakes, dry spells and volcanic eruptions are geological or meteorological risks those turn into disasters when socio-economic resilience of at risk comminutes, areas and countries is too low to withstand the danger of death and devastation. This paradigm involves an added social variable of `vulnerability' to understand, analyze and avert disasters. Vulnerability of a group, gender, race, caste, community and class is determined by structures of social, cultural, economic and political opportunities available with a certain group. Why 90% of the natural disasters and 95% of the total disaster related deaths are occurred in devolving countries? Simply, because of weakness of infrastructure and magnitude of poverty. During the last decade an average 56% of those killed worldwide by disasters each year, were only in South Asia. World Disaster Report 1998 reveals that the annual average number killed in South Asia in the period of 1987-1996 was 50,695. During the same period, the annual average number of people affected by disasters was 77,250,0412. According to another report, by the year 2025, eighty percent of world population will reside in developing countries, and it has been estimated that upto 60% of the people are highly vulnerable to floods, severe storms and earthquakes. Investment is pulled in transitory relief, no mention of poverty reduction of at-risk communities in the case of disasters. In this situation variety of hazards are leading to disasters spotlessly. It was predicted by not less than a UN report that during the next century, an increase in vulnerability to drought may be expected as a result of development pressures and population increases. Poorests from poor countries are precisely the flame of this fire. Ironically pathetic.

(11) Dry spell and drought: Droughts are normal components of climate variability though their effects are, all too frequently, seriously exacerbated by human factors such as population growth, inappropriate agricultural and forestry practices, poor or no planning and war, elaborates a resource document on disasters. One important clarification about ongoing drought in Pakistan is that it is not a recent phenomenon as being taken popularly. As a matter of fact since last three consecutive years there was no substantial rain in arid zones, and from international donors to national governments every one had an efficient evidence to attend to this pattern of rain shortfall in presently affected areas. Nothing was done. Now the pattern of rain shortfall and water scarcity, which is in fact not the matter of weeks or months, rather it is the situation accumulated by three long unattended years has turned climatic variability (drought) into social impasse (famine). So the drought is not recent, the devastation is, yes.

Sate managers are trying to portray, as it was a matter of fate, destiny and discretion of divinity. This may be a serviceable excuse to exploit the folk perception of poor for the shift of responsibility, but for a socially responsible mind it is like a deliberate aversion from the issue of acute public concern. Was this drought a sudden onset, which could not be predicted? No. Unlike of earthquake, drought always has a slow onset, which is quite observable. It is not an event rather that is a process which can be understood and predicted quite well before time.Even in the case of Tharparker, which is now happily being displayed as painting of misery were declared calamity hit zone by the government itself right one year before. In an official IMMIDIATE communiqué on August 18, 1999, deputy commissioner of Tharparker in a letter to commissioner
Mirpurkhas writes:

"Perusal of file on the subject shows there have been poor and in-adequate rain in this district since long as such Broad of Revenue is mostly being moved to sanction relief packages for this district. In the year 1991-92 and 1993-94, this district was declared as calamity affected area and certain relief's were provided to public. Last year too there were inadequate and late rains. Consequently a reference was made to Broad of Revenue to declare 116 dehs of this district as calamity affected area, but any decision was not taken." Letter elaborates more, " The Assistant Commissioners and Mukhtiarkars after survey have reported that poor Thari who mainly depend on cattle and cultivation have virtually become destitutes and their eager eyes are still towards sky for rains." This official communication further forewarns a senior office in division as " In present situation, there is menace of famine which will emerge so severe and deterrent that human beings as well as Cattle will be nearer to starve if certain relief's are not provided to them, timely."
This "timely" relief was sent to poor Tharis after fairly 8 months of official realistion! The accumulated and unattended drought has already hit hard large parts of Southern Afghanistan, the province of Baluchistan and Sindh in Pakistan and several States of India. The disaster is rapidly worsening in these areas, which is caused by poor rainfall over the past three years and an almost total lack of rainfall during the recent winter. Official meteorologists indicated that there is no chance of substantial rains till October. Reports tell that terrain of the drought stricken areas is arid plateau, flanked by ranges of barren hills. Those worst affected are scattered across remote mountain valleys in small cluster villages.
Life and Livelihood in drought-hit areas: In Pakistan these are Balochistan and Sindh badly effected by this initially
much neglected calamity.
Balochistan province in southwestern Pakistan is still undergoing a serious drought. Six districts out of total eight districts are officially declared calamity-hit. One of the worst affected areas is sub-tehsil (county) Aranji in the district of Khuzdar. Some recent reports records that a sparse population of around 28,500 people inhabit an inhospitable mountain area stretching over 2,700 square kilometers to the south of Wadh. Much of the population of Aranji lives in single room houses and beneath the poverty line, since there is little agriculture, economic opportunities are few and access to food is difficult in an area so lacking in roads and transportation facilities. The drought situation has placed great strain on water resources and livestock health, leading to a reduction in prices of livestock and diminishing the purchasing power of the population. The districts of Lasbela, Kharan, Chagai, Loralai and Zhob are reportedly in an equally dire situation. According to the estimate of the IFRC, over 100,000 of the province's total population of 6.5 million have been affected by the drought.

In Sindh, even official figures tells that a total of 1.3 million people and 2664 villages in the arid zone of Tharparkar, Umerkot and Dadu districts have been affected by the current wave of drought. In 2,664 `calamity hit' villages, 13 lakh (1.3 million) human beings and 50 lakh (5 million) have been affected. Another detailed report says that of a total 2,085 villages in the Tharparkar district, 1,895villages with a population of 900,000 people and 3 million cattle heads were affected by drought. In the Umerkot district, 316 of the total 1,066 villages have been declared calamity hit. This area is populated of about 150,000 people and one million animals. In Dadu district 453 of the total 4420 villages with 260,000 people and one million animals were hit.

Human deaths are mainly because of viral infection and other variety of water-born diseases. Since animals and humans share same water sources for drinking. Forced migration is another drought related trauma for locals. Animal husbandry and rainwater-fed agriculture is the chief source of livelihood in drought stricken region. "The poor living conditions caused by the drought have plummeted further due to the high rate of livestock mortality", adds a recent drought assessment report. In addition, water resources are becoming more and more scarce. With the approach of summer, water-borne diseases are expected to multiply and it is feared that the drought conditions will further deteriorate.

Vulnerability Net:

Vulnerability is though a complex phenomenon in internally diverse social entities. In the case of drought stricken areas it has a variety of dormant characteristics. A report on Thar, for instance, says, "vulnerability look like a complex phenomenon featured by many dormant vulnerabilities inherent in the socio-economic plight of Thar and surfaced up merely by the failure of monsoon". Nomads, landless and wage labors as a family unit are the most easy to be eaten up by climatic fluctuations. Within the said family units, women and children are most deprived segments of Thari society during drought. Elderly members of family and cattle head are the other immediate victims of drought. A recent interim report on "Livelihood option for disaster risk reduction in Thar" narrates that the women who don't migrate have the all responsibility to take care of family and animals remains with her. Due to unavailability of nutritional and insufficient food, women and children face many visible and invisible diseases. Women often do embroidery work during off- season and sale it to middlemen on cheaper rates due to their indirect access to the market. Water fetching is very difficult in Thar. Usually this works done jointly by men and women in Thar. People use camels and donkeys for this purpose too. During the drought period, well become more deep due to unavailability of surface water of rain. Therefore it becomes very difficult for women to face the situation. The drop out ratio among children increased. The children were forced to work in carpet weaving, as it is only source for income to parents available in Thar.

Debt Trap:

It might not be a mere cynical sensationalism to note that alongwith sufferers, drought has its beneficiaries too. Misery for one is a pleasure for other. This is a profit economy after all! During severe droughts, when communities under risk face survival hazards they have to take loan from local moneylenders, shopkeepers, neighbors and land lords for their and their families subsistence. The interest rates goes up as the eventuality strikes. The current drought has caused an increase in loan sizes ranging from Rs. 5000 to 50000. Mostly it is for consumption purposes or to menage migration out of Thar. A drought assessment report conducted by Thardeep reveals that the people deprived of cash crops have started to mortgage the assets. The shopkeepers are reluctant for borrowing resulting in the monopoly of middlemen. And middleman is fully exploiting the situation by increasing interest rates upto 15 percent. "Even if rain falls next year the people had a lot to repay back and less to invest in the lands", Thardeep says. A journalist from Sindh was of the view that banks are offering credit to affecties but none is willing to take this advantage just because of the fear of harsh strict recovery derive by government banks. Transportation during crisis is another benefit for relatively wealthy and curse for inflicted. A published report refers an interview of a local from Thar saying, "Normally, they (transporters) charge Rs 2000 for shifting household to Mithi or Naukot, but during the crisis they started charging upto Rs 20000 for the same services".

Paradox of Production:

In Balochistan it was reported that victims of drought blocked roads for not having received amount of food relief announced by the government. In Punjab, given the amazing bumper wheat production in recent season, Governor of Punjab has announced to export food grains to other countries. According to some reports appeared in national dailies, government has no storage capacity to preserve this unexpected high production of wheat crop. Paradox of no production in one area of the same country and plenty of production in the other can trigger the inherent disparities among regions.

Orphaned Technology:

In the dominant approach of disaster response, much focus is laid upon technological installations. Using modern technologies to redress issues of natural urgency is certainly a valid vision but it tends to misfire when local participation and indigenous wisdom is overlooked. In the case of floods and droughts, people have their own historically rooted conjectures of forecasting and disaster fighting but modern development discourse does not permit to include them. In Tharpakar, such modern technology of solar energy plant was installed in 1993. The purpose of this plant was to make brackish water drinkable for area. It has not been working over a year because of the non-availability of diesel, told a local villager to a newsman who recently visited the site. It was also reported by the same newsman in a local daily that Sindh Arid Zone Development Authority (SAZDA), which was meant for the development of Thar and Kohistan areas has fallen victim of corruption and become ineffective. Seventeen officials of SAZDA, including the Director General have been suspended for the past three months
on the charges of corruption, visiting reporter added. Two solar energy plants and four road building schemes all have met with the same fate. There is no one in the area who could be asked by locals about the halt of installed machinery and stop of functions initiated some times ago.

Politics of Relief:

As disasters are usually political, the relief is also political but additionally, it is glamorous too. As government was well aware of the acuteness of problem one year before but no eye could catch the glimpses of misery. As media took an initiative to focus on climate-hit areas, government also stood up to take a lead. Chief Executive visited calamity-hit areas and announced an aggregated amount of Rs 2 billion for drought stricken areas. Army teams were moved to areas for distribution of relief goods i.e. food, water and fodder. Government-owned TV covered it well. Misery and sympathy was equally marketed efficiently. Despite all of this generous exercise, people in and around was literally shocked to read a news story on May 23 published in a national daily. The story was about a member of Brohi family in Balochistan, who out of desperation tried to sell his 15 years old daughter to save his other 15 family members. Political parties have a good opportunity now to vilify government's slackness making the shield of drought victims for their press statements. They think it better entry point to secure their electoral collage, which is suspended by now.

In Sindh, it was observed that one has to have a national identity card to receive the relief goods and money. Most of the nomad victims have no such required ID cards. And to get an ID card is a matter of at least Rs 500 bribe as a practice of registration office of that area. Most of the deserving victims are being denied of relief because of this official precondition. They have no money and time to go for registration. As it is already too late for them. It is feared that relief money will be dolled out thoughtlessly.

Rehabilitation:

A comprehensive approach to disaster management involves four basic phases: mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. We have already passed first two phases without doing anything. We are in phase three now whimsically, though. . Disaster managers maintain that Rs one spent on preparedness can save Rs 1000 in emergency. Even in recovery phase, good mitigation principles can be employed instead of mere re-building. Structure of entailments is needed to be revised and options for livelihoods are to be enhanced to reduce the risk of drought in drought-hit areas. At-risk communities must participate in devising and implementing effective strategies to reduce vulnerability, identifying site-specific solutions and assessing the productiveness of proposed measures. Media on the other hand should not only be confined to publish government handouts rather it should take on connected efforts to investigate relief, rehabilitation and pace of recovery. Media can also empower communities with information of drought mitigation. We also need to learn from this calamity and let it not be turned into a sheer reality from a mere possibility in future.
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The Author is Islamabad-based development reporter, presently coordinating
Journalists Resource Centre Islamabad Chapter.